Rivian stock (RIVN) crashes 10% to $15.76 on December 11, 2025—despite unveiling game-changing AI tech at Autonomy Day. The electric vehicle maker debuts custom self-driving chips, $2,500 Autonomy+ package crushing Tesla’s pricing, and LIDAR for 2026 R2 launch—but layoffs, narrowed guidance, and EV demand concerns have investors spooked as the company races to profitability.
Key Takeaways
- RIVN stock plunges 9.97% to $15.76 on December 11, 2025—despite positive AI Day announcements
- Custom self-driving chip unveiled—Rivian Autonomy Processor replaces Nvidia chips for advanced autonomous driving
- Autonomy+ subscription launched at $2,500 one-time or $49.99/month—70% cheaper than Tesla’s $8,000 Full Self-Driving
- LIDAR sensors confirmed for R2 SUV—first deliveries scheduled first half of 2026
- AI Assistant debuts—manages vehicle functions, syncs apps, flags maintenance issues
- 600 employees laid off in October 2025—struggling EV maker cuts costs amid slowing demand
- 2025 delivery guidance narrowed to 41,500-43,500 vehicles—down from earlier projections
- CEO RJ Scaringe gets $4.6 billion pay package—Musk-style compensation over next decade
- Volkswagen partnership brings $2 billion—over next 4 years from joint venture
- R2 prototypes rolling—”hundreds” already testing on public roads at Tesla Superchargers
BREAKING: Stock Crashes Despite AI Breakthrough
Rivian stock opened at $17.415 on December 11, 2025, before plummeting 9.97% to close at $15.76—the worst single-day drop in months. The decline came just hours after the company’s inaugural Autonomy & AI Day in Palo Alto, where executives unveiled groundbreaking technology.
Current Stock Performance (December 11, 2025):
- Price: $15.76 (down $1.745)
- Day Range: $15.76 – $17.42
- 52-Week Range: $10.36 – $18.60
- Market Cap: $19.25 billion
- Volume: 55.09M (above average 47.49M)
- P/E Ratio: -5.08 (still unprofitable)
The contradiction is stark: Rivian announced technological advances that should excite investors, yet the market responded with a massive selloff. Analysts point to broader concerns about EV demand, the company’s path to profitability, and uncertainty around federal tax credits.
Rivian’s December 11 AI Day Announcements
The $2,500 Tesla Killer: Autonomy+ Destroys FSD Pricing
Rivian’s most aggressive move at AI Day was pricing Autonomy+ at $2,500 one-time or $49.99/month—compared to Tesla’s Full Self-Driving at $8,000 one-time or $99/month.
What You Get:
- Universal Hands-Free Driving on 3.5+ million miles of US and Canadian roads
- Highway Lane Changes with driver monitoring
- Navigate on Autopilot for on-ramps, off-ramps, interchanges
- Software Updates continuously expanding coverage
CEO RJ Scaringe explained the strategy: “We’re not trying to maximize short-term revenue from autonomy. We’re building trust and scale”.
The company previously launched hands-free features earlier in 2025 and plans “eyes-off” functionality by 2026—meaning drivers won’t need to watch the road under certain conditions.
Custom Chip: Rivian Ditches Nvidia
Rivian revealed its Rivian Autonomy Processor—a custom-designed chip that replaces Nvidia hardware the company previously used. The chip processes data from:
- 11 cameras (360-degree coverage)
- 5 LIDAR sensors (3D mapping)
- 12 ultrasonic sensors (close-range detection)
- Radar systems (long-range tracking)
The chip enables the Large Driving Model, an AI system trained on “extensive real and simulated driving datasets” similar to how ChatGPT learns language.
Tesla has also developed custom AI chips manufactured by Samsung and TSMC, giving them control over the full autonomy stack. Rivian is following the same playbook—but adding LIDAR sensors that Tesla CEO Elon Musk famously rejected as “fool’s errand” technology.
Why Did the Stock Crash After Good News?
Despite the technological achievements, RIVN stock fell nearly 10%. Here’s why investors are spooked:
1. Weakening EV Demand
The $7,500 federal EV tax credit expired, removing a major purchase incentive. Analysts predict “demand will remain inconsistent” without government support.
2. Narrowed Delivery Guidance
Rivian narrowed its 2025 delivery forecast to 41,500-43,500 vehicles—down from earlier projections. Q3 2025 deliveries were just 13,201 vehicles.
3. Layoffs Signal Trouble
In October 2025, Rivian laid off 600 employees—roughly 3% of its workforce—citing the need to “streamline operations”.
4. Still Burning Cash
Despite achieving its first quarterly profit in Q4 2024 ($170M), the company reported losses throughout 2025. The P/E ratio of -5.08 shows it’s still unprofitable.
5. Trump Administration Uncertainty
President Trump’s tariff threats on Mexico and Canada worry Rivian, which has “significant supply chain presence” in both countries. CEO Scaringe warned: “Large tariffs will simply lead to increased costs”.
6. Dilution Concerns
The stock is down 50% year-to-date, and some investors worry about potential future fundraising that could dilute shares.
R2 Launch: Make or Break for Rivian
The R2 SUV—Rivian’s Tesla Model Y competitor—is widely considered “make-or-break” for the company.
R2 Key Facts:
- Launch: First half of 2026 (early deliveries expected)
- Starting Price: ~$45,000 (50% cheaper than R1S at $80,000+)
- Size: Compact crossover, 5 inches shorter than R1S
- Features: Quad-motor AWD, LIDAR sensors, hands-free driving
- Production: Normal, Illinois facility (paused production in 2025 to install R2 equipment)
- Target Market: Budget-conscious EV buyers priced out of R1 vehicles
Prototype Progress:
Rivian announced in September 2025 that “hundreds” of R2 prototypes are already testing on public roads. Camouflaged builds have been spotted at Tesla Superchargers—a provocative signal to competitors.
CEO Scaringe posted the first R2 in e-coat earlier this year, suggesting a “Launch Green” color option similar to R1.
The $4.6 Billion CEO Pay Package Controversy
In November 2025, Rivian’s board approved a Musk-style compensation package worth up to $4.6 billion over 10 years for CEO RJ Scaringe.
The pay plan is performance-based, similar to Elon Musk’s controversial Tesla package (later voided by Delaware courts). Critics argue the timing is terrible—announcing massive CEO pay while laying off 600 workers and losing money quarterly.
But supporters note Scaringe took Rivian public at an $86 billion valuation in 2021, secured $5.8B from Volkswagen, and positioned the company as the most credible Tesla challenger.
Volkswagen Deal: $2 Billion Lifeline
One bright spot: Rivian’s joint venture with Volkswagen is generating significant revenue.
Deal Structure:
- $5.8 billion total investment from VW (announced June 2024)
- $1 billion immediate (paid mid-2024)
- $2 billion over next 4 years for software/electrical architecture development
- $2 billion in 2025-2026 for equity stakes
Rivian will provide VW with its advanced software platform—an area where traditional automakers struggle. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives called it a “game changer” that enables Rivian to “enhance technology, reduce costs, and deliver superior vehicles”.
Why Analysts Remain Bullish Despite the Drop
Despite today’s crash, the median analyst price target is $13.76—below the current $15.76 price but still reflecting a “hold” consensus.
Bull Case:
- R2 could unlock mass-market demand with $45K pricing
- Autonomy+ subscription creates recurring revenue stream
- VW partnership brings $2B cash infusion
- Custom chip reduces reliance on Nvidia
- LIDAR strategy aligns with Waymo’s proven approach
Bear Case:
- EV demand slowing without tax credits
- Still unprofitable with negative cash flow
- Stock down 50% in 2025
- Layoffs signal operational stress
- R2 success uncertain until deliveries begin
Motley Fool analysts noted in December: “Rivian is preparing to launch a Tesla Model Y rival while earning money from its Volkswagen deal”. They upgraded the stock to “buy” based on improving margins.
Stock Forecast: Where Is RIVN Headed?
According to Long Forecast projections updated December 8, 2025:
December 2025: $20.74 (31.6% upside from current $15.76)
January 2026: $23.85 (51.2% upside)
June 2026: $30.68 (94.6% upside) — R2 deliveries begin
December 2026: $39.43 (150% upside)
December 2027: $45.46 (188% upside)
These forecasts assume:
- Successful R2 launch and ramp
- Autonomy+ subscriber growth
- Path to profitability by late 2026
- Continued VW partnership revenue
However, the forecast warned: “There are no guarantees in stock predictions, especially for unprofitable growth companies”.
What December 11’s Drop Really Means
Today’s 10% crash is a classic “sell the news” event. Investors who bought on AI Day rumors took profits once the details were announced—even though the technology is impressive.
The real test comes in first half of 2026 when R2 deliveries begin. If Rivian can:
- Deliver 50,000+ R2 vehicles in 2026
- Hit gross profitability by Q4 2026
- Grow Autonomy+ subscribers to 100,000+
- Avoid further layoffs
Then today’s $15.76 price could look like a bargain by year-end 2026.
But if R2 production stumbles, demand disappoints, or the company needs another capital raise, RIVN could test its 52-week low of $10.36.
As one Reddit investor summarized: “Rivian’s not going bankrupt with VW money. The question is whether your shares get diluted to hell before they turn profitable.”
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